Wildfires, exacerbated by extreme weather events and land use, threaten to change the Amazon from a net carbon sink to a net carbon source. Here, we develop and apply a coupled ecosystem-fire model to quantify how greenhouse gas–driven drying and warming would affect wildfires and associated CO2 emissions in the southern Brazilian Amazon. Regional climate projections suggest that Amazon fire regimes will intensify under both low- and high-emission scenarios. Our results indicate that projected climatic changes will double the area burned by wildfires, affecting up to 16% of the region’s forests by 2050. Although these fires could emit as much as 17.0 Pg of CO2 equivalent to the atmosphere, avoiding new deforestation could cut total net fire emissions in half and help prevent fires from escaping into protected areas and indigenous lands. Aggressive efforts to eliminate ignition sources and suppress wildfires will be critical to conserve southern Amazon forests.
Paulo M. Brando, Britaldo Soares-Filho, L. Rodrigues, A. Assunção, Douglas Morton, David Tuchschneider, Erick C. M. Fernandes, Marcia N. Macedo, U. Oliveira3, Michael T. Coe
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Net loss of biomass predicted for tropical biomes in a changing climate
Net loss of biomass predicted for tropical biomes in a changing climate
Tropical ecosystems store over half of the world’s aboveground live carbon as biomass, and water availability plays a key role in its distribution. Although precipitation and temperature are shifting across the tropics, their effect on biomass and carbon storage...
IPAM @ COP 15
IPAM @ COP 15
This report briefly describes the activities performed by the Amazon Environmental Research Institute (IPAM), during the 15th Conference of the Parties (COP) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), occurred between the 7th and 19th of December 2009, in Copenhagen, Denmark.