By Lucas Guaraldo*
Researchers from IPAM (Amazon Environmental Research Institute) have created, in partnership with the World Bank, a platform where it is possible to predict the risk of deforestation and estimate future deforested areas in the states of the Legal Amazon. The tool combines macroeconomic effects with local governance to predict the loss of native vegetation in the region. The results can inform public policies and private initiatives aimed at reducing deforestation.
The tool was developed from analyses made for the technical note “Spatio-temporal scenarios for deforestation in the Brazilian Legal Amazon“, published on April 29. The text was written by Andrea Garcia, Rafaella Silvestrini, Lais Ferreira and Alvaro Batista, IPAM researchers; in partnership with Marek Hanusch, Philipp Kollenda, Carla Uehara and Dieter Wang, from the World Bank. A version published in English is also available here.
According to the platform’s model, Brazilian deforestation is the result of a relationship between macroeconomic factors, environmental governance and the vulnerability of native vegetation areas. While macroeconomic factors are used to estimate the amount of deforestation expected, governance and vulnerability factors are used to estimate the location most at risk of being deforested, as well as the possibility of leakage – when deforestation is not eliminated, but merely “transferred” to another region.
“For example, once forests are set aside for conservation and deforestation agents become less encouraged to deforest, it is possible that they seek other opportunities in other areas and thus deforestation is ‘leaked’ from one area to another. That’s why it’s also very important that deforestation control policies are carried out as multisectoral policies at different scales, where different mechanisms are implemented together to prevent deforestation,” says Andrea Garcia, then a researcher at IPAM and one of the authors of the article.
Dynamics of deforestation
The research uses the World Bank’s macroeconomic forecasts as a tool to predict the impact of economic factors on deforestation. “A previous study of ours showed how dynamics occurring inside and outside the forest, including the productivity of the Amazonian and Brazilian economy, commodity prices, and the exchange rate are strongly linked to deforestation pressures. Working with IPAM now allows us to model deforestation over space and time, starting from our macroeconomic assumptions,” said Marek Hanusch, lead economist at the World Bank.
Another important factor taken into account when creating the models was the mapping of areas where deforestation is more likely to occur. To calculate this propensity and predict the pattern of deforestation, data from Prodes (Project for Monitoring Deforestation in the Legal Amazon by Satellite) from 2017 to 2022 was used. By analyzing historical data and factors such as land ownership, proximity to urban centers, highways and other deforested areas, the researchers were able to identify future deforestation trends.
“The projection shows the amount of deforestation expected, where it is likely to happen and which factors represent a strong connection with this dynamic. In this way, we can think of more targeted strategies for the problem in question. The projections are also important for estimating the effectiveness of the mechanisms implemented in a short space of time, as well as potential leakage from the strategies implemented,” Garcia points out.
The models
The researchers presented three different scenarios based on changes to key points in the model. In the Macroeconomic model (BAU), the quantification of deforestation is based on the macroeconomic factors predicted by the World Bank. In the Historical Reference Level (HRL)model , the quantification of deforestation simply follows the trends of recent years in a constant manner, without taking macroeconomic forecasts into account. In the Macroeconomic with Governance (GOV) scenario, the quantification of deforestation is based on macroeconomic factors, but also takes into account the fact that public forests that have not yet been set aside have been earmarked for conservation. The three models were applied to all the regions of the Legal Amazon and compared with the actual Prodes measurements.
According to the Historical Reference Level scenario, accumulated deforestation between 2020 and 2025 will be around 50,000 km2, 35% higher than indicated by the scenarios that take macroeconomic factors into account, which indicate 37,000 km2 deforested in the period.
“It’s very difficult to predict exactly where we’re going to see deforestation in the future, and the further into the future we go, the more difficult this task becomes. But we were able to project what is most likely to happen if deforestation dynamics follow the same logic as in the recent past. This projection is very valuable for us to be able to build mechanisms that curb deforestation more effectively,” says Garcia.
The spatial distribution of deforestation predicted by the three models indicates the central region of Pará and the south of Amazonas, especially the regions close to roads, as the areas most at risk of deforestation. Lower values are observed in the region between the Cerrado and the Amazon, one of the oldest agricultural frontiers in the Amazon and which has forests with extensive deforested areas.
In addition, undesignated public forests were the most deforested areas in the Business as Usual and Historical Reference Level scenarios . When these forests are earmarked for conservation (macroeconomic scenario with governance), there is a 57% reduction in deforestation in this type of area.
Furthermore, it is important to note that even in the macroeconomic scenario with governance, if there are no mechanisms to control the leakage of deforestation, deforestation is expected to increase mainly in agrarian reform settlements and rural properties. To a lesser extent, also in Conservation Units.
The other data obtained from the models can be accessed via the dashboard developed by the World Bank.
About the World Bank
The World Bank has a bold vision: to create a world free of poverty on a liveable planet. The World Bank provides financing, advice and innovative solutions that improve lives by creating jobs, strengthening economic growth and tackling the most pressing global development challenges. The World Bank is one of the largest sources of finance and expertise for developing countries. It is made up of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD), a global development cooperative with 189 member countries, and the International Development Association (IDA); which provides grants and zero- or low-interest loans to fight extreme poverty in the world’s 75 poorest and most vulnerable countries. For more information, visit https://www.worldbank.org/pt/country/brazil.
IPAM journalist, lucas.itaborahy@ipam.org.br*