Spatiotemporal Scenarios for Deforestation in Brazil’s Legal Amazon

29 de April de 2024

Apr 29, 2024

Andrea Santos Garcia, Rafaella Almeida Silvestrini, Alvaro Maia Batista, Lais Ferreira, Marek Hanusch, Philipp Kollenda, Carla Cristina Solis Uehara e Dieter Wang

Researchers from IPAM (Amazon Environmental Research Institute) created, in partnership with the World Bank, a platform where it is possible to predict the risk of deforestation and estimate the future deforested areas in the states of the Legal Amazon. The research aims to combine macroeconomic effects with local governance to prevent the loss of native vegetation in the region. The results can inform public policies and private initiatives that aim to reduce deforestation.

According to the platform’s model, Brazilian deforestation is the result of the relationship between macroeconomic factors, environmental governance and the vulnerability of native vegetation areas. While macroeconomic factors are used to estimate the amount of deforestation expected, governance and vulnerability factors are used to estimate the location most at risk of being deforested, as well as the possibility of leakages – when deforestation is not eliminated, but merely displaced.

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