Brazil’s leadership in soybean and maize production depends on predictable rainfall in the Amazon-Cerrado agricultural frontier. Here we assess whether agricultural expansion and intensification in the region are approaching a climatic limit to rainfed production. We show that yields decline in years with unusually low rainfall or high aridity during the early stages of crop development—a pattern observed in rainfed and irrigated areas alike. Although agricultural expansion and intensification have increased over time, dry–hot weather during drought events has slowed their rate of growth. Recent regional warming and drying already have pushed 28% of current agricultural lands out of their optimum climate space. We project that 51% of the region’s agriculture will move out of that climate space by 2030 and 74% by 2060. Although agronomic adaptation strategies may relieve some of these impacts, maintaining native vegetation is a critical part of the solution for stabilizing the regional climate.
Baixar (sujeito à disponibilidade)
Download (subject to availability)
Este projeto está alinhado aos Objetivos de Desenvolvimento Sustentável (ODS).
Saiba mais em brasil.un.org/pt-br/sdgs.
Veja também
See also
Green royalties: Keeping offshore Amazon free of oil
While the world urgently hopes to reduce GHG emissions from fossil fuels and deforestation, the Brazilian Amazon offshore potentially becomes a new frontier for oil companies. The expected impact of oil royalties on the regional GDP is a political driving force...
Assessing compliance with the Forest Code: A practical guide
The goal of this guide is to help buyers of Brazilian forestry and agricultural commodities to verify compliance with the Brazilian Forest Code in their supply chain. It presents a range of available and evolving tools to ensure compliance with the Forest Code in the supply chain. The tools described are credible and practical instruments that buyers can use without the need for legal or environmental specialists. In this way, the private sector can support the transition to legal compliance in Brazil’s rural environment, also with the benefit of promoting commodities produced in Brazil in the domestic and international markets.
Authors: Pedro Amaral (Proforest), Tiago Reis (IPAM) e Roberta del Giudice (Instituto BVRio).