Wildfires, exacerbated by extreme weather events and land use, threaten to change the Amazon from a net carbon sink to a net carbon source. Here, we develop and apply a coupled ecosystem-fire model to quantify how greenhouse gas–driven drying and warming would affect wildfires and associated CO2 emissions in the southern Brazilian Amazon. Regional climate projections suggest that Amazon fire regimes will intensify under both low- and high-emission scenarios. Our results indicate that projected climatic changes will double the area burned by wildfires, affecting up to 16% of the region’s forests by 2050. Although these fires could emit as much as 17.0 Pg of CO2 equivalent to the atmosphere, avoiding new deforestation could cut total net fire emissions in half and help prevent fires from escaping into protected areas and indigenous lands. Aggressive efforts to eliminate ignition sources and suppress wildfires will be critical to conserve southern Amazon forests.
Paulo M. Brando, Britaldo Soares-Filho, L. Rodrigues, A. Assunção, Douglas Morton, David Tuchschneider, Erick C. M. Fernandes, Marcia N. Macedo, U. Oliveira3, Michael T. Coe
Baixar (sujeito à disponibilidade)
Download (subject to availability)
Veja também
See also
ENSO Drives interannual variation of forest woody growth across the tropics
ENSO Drives interannual variation of forest woody growth across the tropics
Meteorological extreme events such as El Niño events are expected to affect tropical forest net primary production (NPP) and woody growth, but there has been no large-scale empirical validation of this expectation. We collected a large high–temporal resolution...
Pesquisa IPAM – A percepção dos brasileiros sobre o meio ambiente 2021
Pesquisa IPAM – A percepção dos brasileiros sobre o meio ambiente 2021
A presente pesquisa teve por objetivo levantar dados e mensurar a percepção da população brasileira acerca de questões ambientais relevantes para o atual contexto do país. O levantamento foi realizado entre 24 de fevereiro e 5 de março de 2021 e entrevistou 2 mil...