- Unprecedented calculation shows that Bolsa Verde directly contributed to a 30% drop in deforestation in participating areas from 2012 to 2015
- Deforestation avoided in the period totals 22,600 hectares; emissions avoided amount to 8.3 million tons of carbon dioxide
- Avoided emissions are valued at 199 million dollars, or 2.8 times the total cost of the first phase of Bolsa Verde
- Program achieved avoided emissions at a low cost per ton of CO2: 8.6 dollars per tCO2 instead of the 40~190 dollars per tCO2 practiced on the global market
For the first time, scientists have calculated Bolsa Verde’s contribution to reducing deforestation in the Amazon: primary forest clearing fell by 30% in the settlements and sustainable use conservation units participating in the program’s first phase, which ran from 2011 to 2016, with the first payments beginning in 2012.
The result can be found in a scientific paper published in the first issue of 2026 of the Journal of Environmental Economics and Management. The authorship is shared by researchers from the United Kingdom, Kazakhstan, Norway and Brazil, with IPAM (Amazon Environmental Research Institute) and INPE (National Institute for Space Research).
According to the study, the total area of deforestation avoided by the program between 2012 and 2015 amounts to 22,600 hectares. The emissions avoided amount to 8.3 million tons of carbon dioxide, valued by the experts at 199 million dollars, equivalent to 2.8 times the total cost of the first phase of Bolsa Verde.
This stage of the program also achieved a low cost of avoided emissions per ton of carbon dioxide, leveling out at 8.6 dollars the price of tCO2, which varies between 40 and 190 dollars on the international mitigation market.
“Our estimates suggest that the avoided emissions cost around USD 8.6 per ton, an exceptionally cost-effective result compared to most climate interventions. At a time when deforestation continues to pressure tropical forests, these findings show that programs like Bolsa Verde can deliver real impact — a clear example that social and environmental policies can and should go hand in hand”, says Po Yin Wong, a researcher at Queen Mary University of London and lead author of the study.
At the time, Bolsa Verde paid 300 reais per quarter to families in extreme poverty who lived in priority areas or benefited from them, such as extractive populations. Some stopped receiving the benefit in 2016 because they had moved out of extreme poverty – defined by a monthly family income of up to 77 reais.
The study evaluates that the first phase of the program worked as a complement to formal inspection, reaching hard-to-reach areas in the Amazon and contributing to collective conditionality, since payment only occurs if the entire area complies with the Forest Code.
“What we’ve seen is that Bolsa Verde has positively influenced the governance of the areas. In the Conservation Units, for example, there was a rapprochement between the families assisted and the managers, strengthening dialog and institutional presence. At the same time, the program stimulated internal coordination among the beneficiaries themselves, with the creation of associations and other forms of collective organization”, says Ana Carolina Pessôa, a researcher at IPAM and one of the authors.
The experts add that, with the resumption of the program in 2023, the amount paid to families was doubled and the geographical scope expanded.
Methodology
For the study, 317 areas benefiting from Bolsa Verde from 2012 to 2015 were analyzed, totaling 21,000 participating families, located mainly in the “Arc of Deforestation”.
The researchers applied econometric modeling, as well as robustness tests, to causally identify the impact of the program on deforestation, which ensures the methodological consistency and validity of the results.
They used integrated deforestation data derived from INPE satellite images, official Bolsa Verde geospatial databases, the CAR (Rural Environmental Registry) and environmental infractions registered by Ibama (Brazilian Institute for the Environment and Renewable Natural Resources) and ICMBio (Chico Mendes Institute for Biodiversity Conservation), as well as socio-economic information on population and income.