By Lucas Guaraldo*
A new article published in the scientific journal Environmental Research Letters demonstrates how researchers at SEEG (System for Estimating Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Removals) have generated more accurate, robust and frequent data by combining official methodologies and the annual maps produced by the MapBiomas Network. The changes in the way greenhouse gas emissions are measured make it easier to meet targets and place Brazil as a benchmark in the area.
The new methodology seeks to consider all land use processes, such as recovery, changes between land uses, as well as deforestation, in an annual series and with complete data at the municipal level.
“The publication of data by municipality allows decision-makers to access patterns with the temporal and spatial detail they need to plan and monitor the results of specific mitigation actions. Rather than pointing the finger at the most emitting municipalities, the aim is to engage municipal authorities in the search for solutions. Proof of this potential, for example, was the invitation we received from the Municipal Environment Department of Altamira (PA), the highest emitting municipality in 2022, to present the available tools to their technicians,“ says Bárbara Zimbres, author of the article presenting the method.
Brazil ranks fifth in greenhouse gas emissions worldwide, mainly due to changes in land use. As a signatory to the Paris Agreement, the country must periodically report its emissions, as well as present mitigation targets established in the Nationally Determined Contribution. The SEEG Initiative has been generating independent estimates of gas emissions and removals since 2013 and, as of 2020, the estimation method for the land use change sector has been improved.
Brazilian emissions
In Brazil, 44% of greenhouse gas emissions are caused by land use change, 95% of which is caused by deforestation alone. According to the sixth IPCC (International Panel on Climate Change) report, published in 2022, 45% of emissions caused by changes in land use worldwide are caused by the loss of native vegetation.
In 2011, emissions from changes in land use reached 687 million tons ofCO2, but the peak in this category was in 2003, when 2.1 billion tons were emitted. In recent years, there has been an upward trend, reducing the likelihood of Brazil meeting its international targets. The article points out, however, that if the country manages to contain its deforestation, emissions from the land use change sector would fall by 96%, mitigating around 44% of all Brazilian emissions.
It is in the Amazon that most of Brazil’s emissions from land use change occur. In 2019, according to the analysis developed by SEEG, theCO2 emitted by the forest was 10 times greater than that observed in the Cerrado, which has an area twice as small. The pattern can be seen in the list of municipalities that emitted the most greenhouse gases, made up of municipalities in Pará, Roraima, Rondônia and Amazonas.
journalist at IPAM, lucas.itaborahy@ipam.org.br*