By Lucas Guaraldo*
Less than a week before the start of COP30 activities in Belém, 72 countries have published their NDCs (Nationally Determined Contributions) – action plans that define a nation’s climate goals for the next five years. Together, the published NDCs account for 62% of global emissions and represent a potential reduction of 3.2 gigatonnes of CO2 compared to the last batch of climate commitments. With the presentation of the commitments by China and the European Union, only India, among the four largest emitters on the planet, has yet to make a contribution.
The publication of the NDCs does not guarantee a real reduction in emissions either. Although the publication of the plans is mandatory for all signatories to the Paris Agreement, the ambition and fulfillment of these goals is the responsibility of each country and may not even promise any reduction or expansion of the goals. To keep the global temperature rise below 1.5°C, for example, emissions would have to be 29 gigatonnes of CO2 lower than they are today.
Main emitters
Brazil’s NDC, delivered in November 2024 during COP 29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, establishes a commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 67% by 2035 and achieve climate neutrality – the point at which emissions and removals of gases reach equilibrium – by 2050. The document also indicates a reduction in the use of fossil fuels, an increase in the use of biofuels and significant investments in renewable energy sources.
During New York Climate Week, Chinese President Xi Jinping announced a commitment to reduce emissions by 7% to 10% by 2035 compared to the peak expected before 2030, as well as investing in renewable energy sources and restoring forest areas. Delivered to the United Nations on November 3rd, the commitment reinforces the Chinese government’s commitment to achieving emissions neutrality.
After missing the February and September deadlines for submitting its climate targets, the European Union formalized its NDC on November 4. The document establishes the bloc’s commitment to reduce its emissions by 55% by 2030 and 90% by 2040. The proposal also reaffirms the agreements signed during the first Global Stocktaking at COP28 in Dubai, which envisage tripling the supply of renewable energy and doubling energy efficiency in the region.
In the United States, the withdrawal from the Paris Agreement has meant that the targets handed down by Joe Biden at the end of his term in 2024 are not representative of the country’s current efforts, and it will not present any new commitments. As the biggest emitters in history, the US will emit 5 gigatonnes of CO2 in 2022, equivalent to 11.16% of global emissions. However, the country will continue to be present at COP30 through sub-national actors invited to the conference, such as Californian Governor Gavin Newsom.
IPAM journalist, lucas.itaborahy@ipam.org.br*