By Lucas Guaraldo
The planet is expected to exceed the 1.5°C warming limit established in the Paris Agreement in the coming years, according to a report published Wednesday (2) by UNEP (United Nations Environment Program). For IPAM (Amazon Environmental Research Institute), this finding represents a bitter defeat for humanity, but it should serve as a warning to limit, as much as possible, the duration and intensity of the climate crisis’s effects, in addition to strengthening policies to control deforestation and emissions caused by the burning of fossil fuels.
“Today is a sad day for humanity. We have been defeated by our own actions. According to the UN, we have exceeded the temperature limit that humanity agreed to avoid when 195 countries signed the Paris Agreement in 2015. We have crossed the 1.5°C threshold for the increase in the Earth’s average temperature compared to the pre-industrial period. We have failed to take care of our common home. But there is still time to avoid the worst impacts of climate change,” warns André Guimarães, executive director of IPAM and civil society special envoy to COP30.
The goal of limiting the rise in global average temperature to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels was established in the Paris Agreement, adopted in 2015. According to the UNEP report, even the most optimistic scenario predicts that global warming will peak at 1.8°C above pre-industrial levels, while other scenarios indicate an increase exceeding 2°C, associated with even more severe consequences.
In this context, the submission of the Roadmaps for Phasing Out Fossil Fuels and for Halting and Reversing Deforestation and Forest Degradation is essential to guide global efforts to reduce emissions. The submission and implementation of more ambitious NDCs—ones that reflect the urgency of addressing the climate crisis—must also be a priority for all governments committed to emissions mitigation and climate security.
“We can reshape our future on this planet. It will be difficult, costly, and labor-intensive, but our free will allows us to make choices. We must exercise it to stay alive. We urgently need to reduce the burning of fossil fuels, end forest conversion, and, more broadly, change our relationship with nature. It is possible,” emphasizes Guimarães.
On the 1.5°C Target
Keeping the global average temperature rise below 1.5°C compared to pre-industrial levels is essential for maintaining the stability of the climate system and terrestrial ecosystems. Because the oceans, which cover most of the planet and maintain a lower and more stable temperature, a 1.5°C increase in the global average translates to much steeper increases in continental areas. With these changes, the climate becomes excessively unstable, and natural disasters—such as heat waves, crop failures, and historic droughts—become more common and intense.
As temperatures rise, the risks associated with climate change intensify. Extreme events, such as heat waves, droughts, heavy rains, and losses in agricultural production, tend to become more frequent or intense in different regions of the world.
Natural phenomena, such as El Niño, also become stronger and more frequent as the oceans continue to warm. In 2026, less than three years after the last El Niño event, an extremely strong El Niño is already causing damage in Brazil and triggering warnings of storms, droughts, and heat waves through the end of the year, according to Cemaden (National Center for Monitoring and Alerts on Natural Disasters).