*Climate Observatory
The fires that burned 2.4 million hectares in the Amazon between June and August 2024 emitted 31.5 million tons of CO2 equivalent. That’s almost what Norway emits per year (32.5 million tons of CO2 equivalent). Compared to the same period in 2023, the increase in emissions was 60%. The estimate was made by IPAM (Instituto de Pesquisa Ambiental da Amazônia), which is part of SEEG (Sistema de Estimativas de Emissões de Gases de Efeito Estufa).
The area analyzed includes forests, fields and pastures. When considering forest vegetation alone, the fires impacted 700,000 hectares, which emitted 12.7 million tons of CO2 equivalent. This figure is more than double that emitted by forest fires in the same period in 2023. Emissions from fires are not accounted for in the national inventory (which only includes carbon from fires linked to deforestation), but have been reported by SEEG.
IPAM’s analysis also highlights that emissions continue after the fire is over due to the decomposition of the affected vegetation. It is estimated that over the next 5 to 10 years, more than 2 to 4 million tons of CO2 equivalent could be emitted for this reason.
“A major impact of forest fires on emissions does not occur at the moment when the forest is burning, but afterwards, when mainly large trees die and continue to emit CO2 for many years, which is called delayed emission. What’s worse is that a forest degraded by fire becomes more susceptible to other fires, perpetuating a cycle of degradation and emissions,” explains Ane Alencar, IPAM’s Science Director.
“We have a frightening scenario of standing forests, which should store carbon for the next few hundred years, being devastated by fire and becoming a significant source of greenhouse gases. In the next few years, we may not see the smoke, but the emissions will still be there and, with them, the increase in global warming,” adds Camila Silva, a researcher at IPAM.
Bárbara Zimbres, a researcher at IPAM, comments that the data shows a significant impact on greenhouse gas emissions, which slows down what the country has managed to mitigate by reducing deforestation. In August, the government announced that the area of deforestation alerts in 2024 in the Legal Amazon was the smallest ever measured by INPE’s Deter-B system. The figure was 4,315 km², down 46% on last year. The data indicates that the official deforestation rate, which will be announced in November, could show the second consecutive drop in deforestation in Lula’s third term.
The fires that have spread across the Amazon are intensified by the dry climate that has hit the country. According to a technical note released on September 5 by Cemaden (the National Center for Monitoring and Alerts on Natural Disasters), the drought, in addition to being very intense, is already one of the longest in the last 70 years. The causes result from a combination of factors, such as the poor rainy season, which failed to replenish the moisture in the dry soil and vegetation last season, global warming, which has unbalanced the climate, and changes in land use, which degrade vegetation, an important source of moisture.
“The scenario is worrying, because the long-term impacts of such intense fires are not entirely clear. There is a risk that we will enter a vicious circle of more severe droughts, more intense fires and increased tree mortality which, in turn, feeds back into the fuel stocks available for future fire events,” comments Zimbres.
**Photo credit: Joedson Alves/EBC