Anna Júlia Lopes*
A study by researchers from IPAM (Amazon Environmental Research Institute) and national and international institutions shows that the recovery of a large part of the Amazon is still possible – as long as urgent and coordinated conservation measures are adopted. The information is contained in the article “Points of no return for the Amazon forests: beyond myths and towards solutions”, published in the scientific journal Annual Review of Environment and Resources.
In the document, the researchers argue that there are still major uncertainties about the understanding of a single tipping point (point of no return, in Portuguese) for the entire Amazon system. According to the study, there are in fact multiple risks of ecological collapse with different characteristics for different regions of the Amazon, which result from combinations of deforestation, climate change, loss of fauna and forest fires. However, the good news is that several of these risks can be avoided with ambitious and immediate action.
“Although climate change and local disturbances are already causing major negative transformations in the Amazon, the lack of evidence of an imminent forest collapse caused solely by climate (without the fire factor) also represents a crucial window of opportunity. The fate of the Amazon is not predetermined by a single point of no return – the choices, policies and actions taken today can steer the region towards a more sustainable future,” says the article.
According to Paulo Brando, the IPAM researcher who led the study, the hypothesis of a tipping point that could lead the Amazon into a “death spiral” is important for public policy and public perception. However, according to the article, “overemphasizing” the imminence of the point of no return without taking into account some of its uncertainties can result in a feeling of fatalism, reducing possible proactive responses.
“If the concept of the point of no return – associated with the amplifying effects between forest and climate – is really to guide conservation policies and actions, it needs to be communicated in a way that highlights the risks and makes clear the viable paths for intervention. The most effective messages are those that balance the urgency of the threats with an emphasis on the possibilities for taking action and implementing solutions,” the document states.
“Hammer effect”
In addition to the concept of a climate tipping point, Brando says that there is another type of hypothesis related to the potential collapse of the forest that is even more urgent: the so-called “hammer effect”.
“The ‘hammer effect’ is as if we put so much pressure on ecosystems that it ends up resulting in the loss of a large part of the biodiversity and services of these regions even without a clear climate tipping point. It’s a direct pressure that is happening now, and not decades from now due to a potential climate collapse,” he says.
Brando, who holds a PhD in Interdisciplinary Ecology and is a professor at Yale University in the United States, argues that the “hammer effect” should be stopped immediately in order to maintain the Amazon’s ecosystem services. The phenomenon is cited in the article as being one of the main drivers of ecosystem and fauna losses in the forest, and its effects are now being felt throughout most of the Amazon.
For Brando, the article brought the positive message that forests under pressure from the “hammer effect” have a high resilience. “If we remove this immense pressure caused by fragmentation, defaunation, fire, logging, among others, the forests have a chance of surviving, especially in the most connected regions and with the restoration effort,” he says.
Resilience and measures to reverse the loss of the Amazon
The article states that the Amazon’s resilience still exists, although it is declining in some areas. The study explains that the forest still has the capacity to regenerate, especially where there is continuity of vegetation cover, species diversity and support from local communities.
“Forests inserted in a matrix with high forest cover can quickly recover biomass and tree species richness,” says the text.
In the opinion of Joice Ferreira, a biologist and researcher at Embrapa (Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation), the main message left by the article is that possible tipping points are not the “main point” on which society and the scientific community should focus. Ferreira says that while there are uncertainties about when and where a point of no return for the Amazon might occur, the study shows that the focus should be on what can be done to avoid these changes in the climate – whether they are abrupt or gradual.
“There is only one certainty: we have to act now,” says the researcher. She believes that if society were better informed about what the environmental risks involving the Amazon could mean for the future and for activities that are essential to the Brazilian economy – such as agriculture – the population would become more engaged in climate change issues.
Taking advantage of the forest’s resilience and ability to regenerate, the article proposes a set of immediate strategies to avoid irreversible damage to the region. These include:
- reducing deforestation – this measure is cited by the article as the “first line of defense” to prevent the collapse of the Amazon forests;
- restoring landscapes;
- forest fire management;
- strengthening public policies; and
- cooperation with indigenous peoples and traditional communities to conserve the biome.
Ferreira explains that the measures mentioned are interconnected. For example, by conserving forests and making landscapes more sustainable through restoration, the presence of fire is naturally reduced. She advocates creating a “culture of protection” by increasing governance and improving the landscape of national protection laws as a way of encouraging a sociobioeconomy, or, as she defines it, “an economy that keeps the forest standing”.
For Liana Anderson, a researcher at Cemaden (National Center for Monitoring and Alerts of Natural Disasters) who also signed the study, the message is that it is possible to “remove” the pressure caused by human beings. She argues that this idea suggests a safe path, which would allow for sustainable development and an improvement in the quality of life in the forest and, consequently, for the world ‘s population and Brazil’s productive sector – which depends on the existence of the forest.
“Regardless of whether the changes occur gradually or abruptly, the environmental solutions remain the same: they require interventions that stabilize the global climate, strengthen environmental governance, reduce local warming by controlling deforestation and restoration, and promote fire management. These strategies are already well known, but implementing and sustaining them on a large scale remains a major challenge,” concluded the authors, who stressed the need for a “lasting political commitment” involving Amazonian decision-makers, the transformation of the regional economy and leadership from local communities.
*IPAM journalist, anna.rodrigues@ipam.org.br
Photo credit: Carlos Durigan/IPAM
