By Mayara Subtil*
In 2025, Brazil was China’s leading supplier of five agricultural commodities. In terms of figures, the country accounted for 73% of soybeans, 59% of corn, 56% of beef, 43% of chicken, and 42% of cotton imported by China. The data are part of a technical report prepared by IPAM (Amazon Environmental Research Institute) and China’s EEI (Evergreen Environmental Institute), titled “China-Brazil Trade Relations: Toward a New Path for Sustainable Cooperation.”
The document analyzes how changes in bilateral trade, climate risks, and sustainability governance are shaping the relationship between the two countries in food production and consumption. The study addresses the environmental dimensions of commodity trade and opportunities for cooperation in areas such as sustainable supply chains, traceability, technological innovation, financing, and low-carbon production.
The analysis points to a relationship of growing interdependence: while China depends on Brazilian agricultural commodities for its supply, the long-term stability of these supply chains is linked to environmental and climatic conditions in Brazil’s producing regions, particularly in the Amazon and the Cerrado. According to the study, by 2030, more than half of the farms located on the border between the two biomes could face an increasing risk of crop failure under current climate conditions. By 2060, this percentage could reach 74%.
For soybeans, this relationship is even more pronounced. China imported a record 111.8 million metric tons in 2025, of which approximately 82 million were supplied by Brazil. This level of dependence, the technical note points out, makes sectors such as China’s animal feed and livestock industries more vulnerable to climate shocks and to land-use governance conditions in Brazil.
“Brazil and China have built a trade relationship of enormous importance to both countries, but the challenge now is to ensure that it remains resilient in the face of climate change. Protecting the Amazon and the Cerrado and investing in low-carbon agriculture does not mean producing less. It means creating the conditions for Brazil to continue producing and for China to have security of supply. As two of the leading economies of the Global South, we have the opportunity to show that food production, development, and conservation can advance together,” said André Guimarães, executive director of IPAM.
In 2024, Brazil and China marked 50 years of diplomatic relations and elevated their bilateral partnership to the level of a community with a shared future for a more just world and a more sustainable planet. In addition to being trading partners, both countries are members of BRICS and the G20, and hold prominent positions among the economies of the Global South.
According to the technical note, this position paves the way for the relationship to evolve from commodity trade to a broader agenda of cooperation on food security, climate adaptation, technology, and sustainable investments. In this context, sustainability is no longer merely an environmental issue but has become an integral part of the discussion on food security, competitiveness, and supply chain stability. The study also highlights that criteria such as traceability and environmental performance are gaining ground in agricultural trade and risk management between the two countries.
Traceability and Deforestation-Free Production
Brazil and China already have tools and initiatives in place that can support this transition. On the Brazilian side, systems such as the CAR (Rural Environmental Registry), SISBOV (Cattle and Buffalo Identification and Certification System), and PRODES (Project for Monitoring Deforestation in the Legal Amazon via Satellite) make it possible to track land use, livestock production, and deforestation. The two countries have also initiated technological cooperation to develop cross-border traceability systems.
The main obstacle, according to the study, is no longer the lack of technological tools, but the need to expand institutional integration, economic incentives, and mutual recognition of traceability systems. Among the barriers are differences in data standards and levels of transparency, unequal private-sector participation, and fragmented governance.
Another approach highlighted in the report is to increase production on land that has already been cleared. Brazil has at least 28 million hectares of degraded pastureland with high potential for agricultural conversion. Utilizing these areas could expand the country’s grain-planted area by approximately 35% compared to the 2022/23 harvest, without placing additional pressure on native ecosystems.
Brazil’s experience shows that production and conservation can advance simultaneously. Between the year 2000 and the following decade, the country doubled its food production while reducing deforestation in the Amazon by 83%. According to the study, restoring degraded areas and increasing the productivity of already cleared land can help meet food demand without replicating a model based on expansion into new areas of native vegetation.
Cooperation can also advance through technology and investment. China ranks among the world’s largest investors in precision agriculture and digital machinery, while Brazil has accumulated experience in territorial and satellite monitoring. An example of this cooperation is CBERS, a Sino-Brazilian space program that has been in operation since 1999.
In 2025, the BNDES (National Bank for Economic and Social Development) and CEXIM (China Export-Import Bank) established a joint fund with a target of up to $1 billion, aimed at areas such as energy transition, green infrastructure, the bioeconomy, and agriculture in Brazil. In agriculture, initiatives involving the mechanization and digitization of family farming, as well as traceability initiatives, also point to possibilities for integrating technology, financing, and sustainable production.
The statement concludes that the combination of traceability, sustainable intensification, and financing for low-carbon agriculture can reduce the risk of deforestation, increase climate resilience, and bring greater stability to global food supply chains.
Cooperation between Brazil and China, according to the report, can also take on a broader dimension: as two of the leading economies in the Global South, the countries are well-positioned to jointly develop sustainability mechanisms tailored to the realities of food-producing and food-consuming nations. This experience could contribute to a model of South-South cooperation in which trade, science, technology, financing, and conservation are treated as parts of a single strategy for food security in the context of climate change.
*Communications analyst. mayara.barbosa@ipam.org.br
