27.9 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, or 34 times Brazil’s deforestation in 2024: this is the gap between the need to reduce global emissions to prevent the average global temperature from rising more than 1.5º C and the international emissions reduction targets presented so far. A calculation made by Barbara Zimbres, a researcher at IPAM (Amazon Environmental Research Institute), exposes the ambition deficit of the NDCs (Nationally Determined Contributions). The response to the targets is being discussed at COP30 (30th Conference of the Parties).
In Brazil, deforestation is one of the main contributors to Brazilian emissions – accounting for 42% of them – but reducing the country’s deforestation alone won’t solve the climate issue. According to the Paris Agreement, countries around the world must contribute to reducing emissions through NDCs, climate targets that must correspond to the planet’s need to prevent temperature rises. 123 of the 197 NDCs have already been submitted to the UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change), but Zimbres explains that the targets are insufficient to curb warming.
“The biggest problem is that the NDCs submitted so far represent a tiny increase in ambition compared to the previous NDCs, of just 3.4 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in the global total. As the biggest emitters have already submitted their NDCs, we don’t expect a major change in this picture with the submission of the remaining ones. It’s not for nothing that UNEP [United Nations Environment Program], in its Emissions Gap Report, considers the 1.5°C target to be buried. With the NDCs presented so far, we are on course for a world that will be 2.3 to 2.5°C warmer by the end of the century. To change this scenario, countries need to increase their ambition,” she said.
Outside the official COP30 negotiating agenda, the response to the emissions synthesis report was discussed in presidential consultations and has yet to reach a consensus during the Conference. On Friday (21), the COP30 presidency published a draft indicating possible solutions, a document that reminds countries that they can adjust their NDCs to the necessary ambition at any time.
Paulo Moutinho, senior researcher at IPAM, stresses the importance of greater commitment to reducing emissions for life.
“The world needs more ambition. Countries need to be more ambitious in their efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Because, as we are today, we are losing the ‘license’ of the planet. And when we lose this ‘right to use the planet’, it is certainly those who have the least who will suffer the most. So it’s also a question of justice and fundamental respect for the right to live. That’s what we’re talking about at the end of the day. We need to continue guaranteeing the basic right to life for everyone who inhabits this planet,” he said.
Brazilian target
Data from SEEG (Greenhouse Gas Emission Estimation System), an IPAM initiative, shows that the country needs to adjust its trajectory in order to meet the gas reduction target presented at COP29. Brazil’s emissions should have fallen by 9% more than they are currently falling, in order to be aligned with a reduction trajectory of between 59% and 67% by 2035. While only the Land Use Change and Forestry sector has reduced its emissions, Zimbres explains that other sectors also need to contribute.
“In Brazil, the recent control of deforestation has proved to be the government’s greatest asset in its climate commitments. But according to the SEEG, eliminating deforestation – which, by the way, has not yet been achieved – will not be enough to reach Brazil’s target and cannot be the government’s only focus. It will be necessary to work towards a rapid energy transition and the reduction of emissions from the agricultural sector, as well as effectively combating the degradation of Brazilian biomes,” he says.
The Brazilian NDC also commits to zero deforestation by 2030. Although it represents a leap in ambition in relation to the previous target, the goal does not match the need to reduce global emissions, like most countries.
IPAM journalist karina.sousa@ipam.org.br*