By Marcelo Freitas and Mayara Subtil*
The roadmaps presented by the Brazilian government to combat deforestation and advance the energy transition need to move beyond the drawing board and translate into public policies, changes in economic sectors, and investments. This was the focus of the high-level dialogue organized by IPAM (Amazon Environmental Research Institute), in partnership with the CIPÓ Platform, during COP31 in Antalya, Turkey. The meeting brought together representatives from civil society, the scientific community, and governments to discuss the implementation of these two agendas and the path forward to maintain their coordination leading up to COP32 in Ethiopia in 2027.
The IPAM + CIPÓ roundtable : From Belém to COP32 – Building on the Legacy of COP30 on Fossil Fuels and Forests, held in the Climate Cooperation Lounge, also addressed climate finance, South-South cooperation, and the participation of different stakeholders in developing climate solutions. The discussion stemmed from a process that began at COP28 in Dubai, when Ambassador Sultan Al Jaber, then president of the conference, spearheaded the development of roadmaps to guide the implementation of commitments related to forests and the transition away from fossil fuels.
André Guimarães, executive director of IPAM, noted that the creation of these tools represented a step forward in organizing climate agendas, but also marked the beginning of a more complex phase.
For Guimarães, the release of the roadmaps does not mean that changes will happen automatically. Now, the challenge is to translate the proposals into concrete actions within governments, mobilize economic sectors to review their practices, and engage the financial system in the transition.
“From a civil society perspective, this moment should be understood as the beginning of a new cycle. We cannot simply relax just because we now have a roadmap and imagine that the changes will happen naturally, easily, and without obstacles. It is now that the hardest work begins,” he said.
The executive director emphasized that IPAM’s work in the Amazon, which has been ongoing for more than 30 years, has combating deforestation as one of its main priorities. The agenda, however, is linked to a broader goal: contributing to the stabilization of the global climate. For this reason, the implementation of the maps requires coordination between environmental policies, economic decisions, and financing, so that international commitments yield results on the ground.
The experience of the Santa Marta Conference, held in Colombia in April 2026, was presented by Irene Vélez Torres, the country’s Minister of the Environment and one of the initiative’s key political leaders. Co-organized by the Colombian and Dutch governments, the meeting brought together 57 countries to discuss ways to overcome dependence on fossil fuels and build an international cooperation agenda outside traditional negotiation formats.
Vélez Torres emphasized that one of the distinguishing features of the Santa Marta meeting was that it created a space to discuss a topic historically treated as taboo in climate negotiations: the transition away from fossil fuels. The minister noted that a similar initiative focused on forests or climate finance would need to take into account the specific characteristics of each agenda, since these issues do not necessarily face the same kind of political resistance.
“Another aspect I consider fundamental in Santa Marta is that, although there is a connection, coordination, and complementary relationship with the COPs, the initiative can also exist independently of them. We do not depend on the consensus reached in this forum, nor on the decisions of those who try to block progress. We are greater than what will be decided here [at COP31],” added Vélez Torres, as she advocated for the continuation of international mobilization.
Another lesson highlighted by the minister was the participatory methodology adopted at the conference. The proposal sought to break with the traditional hierarchical structure of intergovernmental negotiations, recognizing that civil society, the scientific community, indigenous peoples, parliamentarians, and subnational governments have the legitimacy to participate in developing solutions.
This approach is linked to the concept of “dialogue of knowledge,” developed in Latin America, and seeks to ensure that different groups have the space to contribute, present proposals, and participate in decision-making. For Vélez Torres, this perspective also strengthens the presence of voices from the Global South on the climate agenda and can inspire other processes of international cooperation.
Climate Trajectory
During the meeting, Paulo Artaxo, president of IPAM’s Deliberative Council, drew attention to the current trajectory of emissions and to the differences between the global average warming and the projected impacts in tropical regions.
Considering the emission reduction commitments made by countries, projections point to an average increase of 2.8°C in global temperature. In Brazil, this scenario could result in a rise of between 3.5°C and 4°C across much of the country, intensifying extreme weather events and the challenges faced by urban populations. “To change this trajectory, the two implementation roadmaps are absolutely essential, but they are not enough,” Artaxo stated.
The scientist argued that these agendas should be incorporated into the UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) negotiation process and that developing countries should expand cooperation among themselves. In this context, the BRICS can contribute to coordination, but the initiative must also include other countries from the Global South, without relying
exclusively on the resources and solutions offered by the Global North.
Artaxo also noted that the implementation of the roadmaps depends on significant participation from the financial sector, especially so that developing countries can put the measures into practice. As an example, he cited the 71% reduction in deforestation in Brazil over the past four years—a result that, according to Artaxo, was achieved without specific external funding for that purpose.
“The roadmap for combating deforestation is, of course, much easier to implement. Brazil has already managed to reduce deforestation by 71% over the past four years, without receiving external funding for this purpose. Therefore, I have no doubt that we can achieve similar results in the Congo Basin and Southeast Asia. But, of course, if resources are available to accelerate this transition, the process will be much faster, simpler, and more beneficial for most countries,” the scientist emphasized.
The African perspective brought to the debate the political and economic challenges of implementing the energy transition in countries that still view the exploitation of fossil fuels as an alternative for financing their development. Mithika Mwenda, executive secretary of PACJA (Pan African Climate Justice Alliance), pointed out that the development of strategies and declarations does not, in and of itself, guarantee their implementation.
For Mwenda, the voluntary nature of the roadmaps can facilitate countries’ participation, provided that their implementation takes national circumstances into account.
“Implementation depends on the national circumstances of each country. This is especially important for those who might otherwise block the debate. In many African countries, for example, there are quite sensitive positions on the issue. During the plenary session, the representative from Nigeria made a very good statement, but without presenting a concrete position. Nigeria is an oil-producing country, and one can understand this reluctance to make clearer commitments,” she said.
Mithika also explained that civil society organizations in the East African Community have been working to challenge the project. This mobilization contributed to institutions such as the African Development Bank and European banks ceasing to finance the project, although Chinese support has continued.
According to PACJA’s executive secretary, the discussion must demonstrate to governments that investments in fossil fuel infrastructure also involve economic risks. With the expansion of renewable energy and the electrification of transportation, oil exploration and transportation projects may become unviable in the coming decades. In this scenario, the funds invested today—including through loans—could become stranded assets and leave countries with debt.
Preparations for COP32, to be held in Ethiopia, were also highlighted as an opportunity to expand cooperation among governments, civil society organizations, and African institutions. “For this reason, we should not treat this initiative as a one-off event, but as an ongoing process. I believe we will be able to expand support for both agendas—forests and the energy transition,” he concluded.