By Suellen Padilha*
In this biweekly edition of “Um Grau e Meio,” José Raimundo de Sousa, a meteorologist at INMET (National Institute of Meteorology) in Belém since 1982, is interviewed. The expert discusses the weather conditions forecast for the Círio period, the effects of El Niño, and the factors that may contribute to the sensation of intense heat during the processions.
What is the weather forecast for Pará, especially for Belém, during the 2026 Círio de Nazaré period?
For Belém, the forecast calls for clear to partly cloudy skies between 6 a.m. and 2 p.m., with sunshine breaking through a few clouds. The sun rises at 6:20 a.m., and temperatures start around 24°C at dawn, rising throughout the morning. Temperatures are expected to range between 24°C and 33°C during this period, with a high of approximately 38°C between 11:00 a.m. and 2:30 p.m.
Is El Niño influencing the weather conditions forecast for this year’s Círio? In what way?
Yes. One of the characteristics of the El Niño phenomenon is reduced rainfall in Belém, and during the dry season, it can contribute to prolonging this period of lower precipitation. With less rain and reduced cloud cover, a greater amount of solar radiation reaches the surface directly. This process contributes to rising temperatures and may make hot conditions more prevalent during the Círio period. Thus, El Niño’s influence is felt both through reduced rainfall and through conditions that lead to higher temperatures in the city.
Is there a trend toward above-average temperatures or reduced/increased rainfall during the Círio period?
The maximum temperatures forecast for the Círio period are between 1°C and 2°C above average. There is a possibility that temperatures could reach 36°C, which is up to 3°C above the historical average for the month of October.
Therefore, among the conditions forecast for this year’s Círio, the main highlight is precisely the occurrence of above-average temperatures, especially during the hottest parts of the day.
What weather conditions warrant the most attention during this year’s processions?
High temperatures warrant attention, as does high relative humidity, which can range from 80% to 94%. Under these conditions, the heat index can reach approximately 40°C, causing greater discomfort during the processions. Given this scenario, it is important for people to stay hydrated and drink water to avoid the effects of the heat.
Is there a possible comparison with previous years of the Círio that had similar weather conditions?
In recent years, there have been no reports of rain between 6 a.m. and 12 p.m. during the Círio. This trend already shows that the conditions observed on the mornings of the processions have been drier.
However, this year’s forecast indicates different temperature conditions, with hotter weather expected during the Círio period. Therefore, although it is true that the absence of rain in the morning has also occurred in previous years, the conditions forecast for this year point to a hotter experience during the processions.
What explains the intense heat that is often felt during the processions?What role do temperature, humidity, and solar radiation play in this perception?
Crowds cause greater discomfort and contribute to an even higher perceived temperature. Regarding surface conditions, it is recommended to seek out shaded areas—especially under trees—and to choose more open spaces that allow for greater natural ventilation.
Throughout the morning, the prevailing wind will be from the northeast and east, with a few hours of wind coming from the north in the Boulevard Castilhos França area. This circulation is also influenced by sea breezes, with winds originating from Guajará Bay.
IPAM* Communications Analyst
Suellen.nunes@ipam.org.br
