With global warming set to exceed 1.5 °C, the world is facing a “new reality”: we have reached the first of many tipping points in the Earth system which, over time, will cause catastrophic damage unless humanity takes urgent action. This is the main conclusion of a landmark report released on Monday (13) by the University of Exeter and international partners. IPAM (Instituto de Pesquisa Ambiental da Amazônia) co-authored the chapter on the impacts of the point of no return in the Amazon.
“What we showed in the case study for the Amazon is that without immediate action, cascading risks can generate irreversible losses for ecosystems and communities, compromising regional and global sustainability. But recognizing and strengthening collective territories – where the forest still resists – is the way to transform negative turning points into forces for regeneration and climate justice,” said Patrícia Pinho, IPAM’s Deputy Research Director and co-author of the study.
Prepared by 160 scientists from 87 institutions in 23 countries, the second Global Report on tipping points warns: warm-water coral reefs, on which almost a billion people and a quarter of all marine life depend, are already past their tipping point. Widespread die-off is occurring and, unless global warming is reversed, the extensive reefs as we know them will be lost, although small refuges may survive and must be protected.
The report also reinforces the call for countries to slow down the rise in temperature to avoid crossing more tipping points. The scientists warn that every fraction of a degree and every year above 1.5 °C is relevant.
“We are rapidly approaching several tipping points in the Earth system that could transform our world, with devastating consequences for people and nature. This requires immediate and unprecedented action from COP30 leaders and policymakers around the world,” warned Professor Tim Lenton, from the University of Exeter’s Global Systems Institute.
The report also warns that the abrupt and irreversible nature of Earth system tipping points means that they represent a different kind of threat to other environmental challenges, and that current policies and decision-making processes are not adequate to respond to them. Global action must include accelerating emissions reductions and increasing carbon removal to minimize excessive temperature increases. The expected impacts of non-return processes need to be considered in risk assessments, adaptation policies, loss and damage mechanisms and human rights litigation.
Manjana Milkoreit, from the University of Oslo and one of the authors, said that current political thinking does not usually take tipping points into account. “Tipping points present distinct governance challenges compared to other aspects of climate change or environmental decline, requiring both innovations in governance and reforms of existing institutions,” she said. “Preventing points of no return requires early mitigation measures that minimize the global temperature peak, the length of the period above 1.5°C and the time of return below 1.5°C. Sustainable carbon dioxide removal approaches need to be rapidly scaled up to achieve this goal.”
Authors work with COP30 presidency on positive turning points
The study also points to actions to trigger “positive turning points”, such as the deployment of green technologies. In the two years since the first Global Report on Tipping Points, there has been a radical global acceleration in some areas, including the adoption of solar energy and electric vehicles.
According to the researchers, positive tipping points offer the only reliable path to a safe, just and sustainable future, says the report. They are working with Brazil’s COP30 Presidency to ensure that tipping points are on the summit’s agenda.
“We need to do more and act faster to seize the positive opportunities of turning points. By doing so, we can drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions and move the world away from catastrophic points of no return and towards a prosperous and sustainable future,” warns Tim Lenton.
The report’s authors are working with Brazil’s COP30 Presidency on the “Action Agenda” as a platform to accelerate climate transition plans and trigger self-reinforcing changes in different sectors from agriculture to energy, from forests to cities, towards a low-carbon, climate-resilient global transformation.
“As part of a global mobilization against climate change, our ‘Global Task Force’, the COP30 Presidency has invited community leaders, academics and scientists to explore the best of available science and ancient wisdom on how our institutions can gain exponentiality in deploying solutions and versatility in responding to the climate crisis, including through agile, iterative and adaptive capacities. I welcome the Global Tipping Points Report as a positive and timely response to our invitation. The report is hopeful and sobering evidence that humanity can still choose to change and evolve towards a safe, prosperous and equitable future,” said Ambassador André Corrêa do Lago, President of COP30 in Brazil.
Traditional peoples and communities of the Amazon as part of the solution
Negative social tipping points – such as displacement, health impacts and cultural erosion – are unfolding alongside the forest’s ecological transitions, especially among indigenous peoples and traditional populations. These risks remain largely neglected in climate policies and are exacerbated where governance fails to guarantee territorial rights, enforce protections and support local adaptation. Patrícia Pinho, however, emphasizes that the solution lies in the forest itself, but stresses that the participation of public authorities is essential to prevent the situation from worsening.
“Indigenous Lands and Conservation Units have a high potential for climate mitigation and are fundamental for maintaining carbon stocks and preventing ecosystems from collapsing. In contrast, Non-Destined Public Forests concentrate most of the carbon losses due to degradation – a direct reflection of weak governance and insecure land tenure,” he warned.
Positive impacts
The report highlights progress on positive turning points and opportunities for a cascade of positive changes:
- Positive turning points have already been reached globally in solar PV and wind energy, as well as in the adoption of electric vehicles, battery storage and heat pumps in major markets. These transitions can still be accelerated. Coordinated policy action at “super-leverage points” can trigger cascades of positive tipping points in interacting sectors (e.g. energy, transportation and heating), anticipating the tipping point in all of them. Once replaced, polluting technologies are unlikely to return, as the new options are cheaper and better. Social attitudes are also changing. Concern about climate change is growing globally and even a small number of people can influence the majority.
- More positive turning points are approaching in sectors such as freight transport. Brazil, the host country of COP30, has the potential to produce green steel, green hydrogen and green ammonia, helping to boost these crucial technologies around the world. Positive tipping points can quickly restore nature and biodiversity. Ecosystem restoration can restore health to degraded systems, and the shift to more sustainable patterns of consumption and production can lead to tipping points in food and fiber supply chains, ending deforestation and ecosystem conversion.
- We need to identify and trigger many more positive turning points. Better indicators are needed to understand the potential for turning points. Once identified, positive turning points are made possible by making the desired innovation the most accessible, attractive and/or cost-effective option. Governments, companies, civil society and individuals all have a role to play. People understand the need for change and support the transition to a cleaner, healthier world, as long as it is done fairly. Success may depend on following a path of less polarization. The COP30 Presidency has launched a Global Task Force (meaning “collective efforts”) to encourage climate action around the world.
Case studies
The report includes case studies on various inflection points in the Earth system:
- Globally, warm-water coral reefs are suffering unprecedented mortality due to repeated mass bleaching events. With current global warming at around 1.4 °C, reefs are passing their thermal tipping point (central estimate of 1.2 °C, range 1 to 1.5 °C). Even if warming stabilizes at 1.5 °C, it is virtually certain (probability greater than 99%) that warm-water coral reefs will reach the tipping point. This means that coral reefs on any significant scale will be lost unless global temperatures return to a warming of 1°C or less, although fragments of reefs can be preserved with conservation actions that minimize other human stressors, such as overfishing and pollution. Regional risk assessments and governance are urgently needed to prepare for the increasing loss of ecosystem services provided by reefs.
- The report concludes that although the temperature increase that would cause widespread decline of the Amazon rainforest due to a combination of climate change and deforestation is lower than previously thought, it is still in the range of 1.5 °C, highlighting the need for urgent action. More than a hundred million people depend on the Amazon. The study points out that, on the other hand, the biome can also be subject to positive social tipping points: inclusive local governance (including indigenous peoples), recognition of traditional knowledge and targeted investments in conservation and restoration can increase the resilience of people and nature.
- The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) risks collapsing under 2 °C of global warming. This would result in harsher winters in northwestern Europe, disrupt monsoons in West Africa and India, and decrease agricultural productivity in much of the world, with significant impacts on global food security.
“Only with a combination of decisive policies and civil society action can the world change its trajectory from facing existential risks from earth system tipping points to seizing positive opportunities from tipping points,” concludes Tim Lenton.